Jidong Cement (000401): Q3 sales decline due to weather factors
Event Overview: Jidong Cement released three quarterly reports.
The company achieved operating income of 101 in Q3 2019.
800 million US dollars, a comparable increase of 10 years.
95%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 9.
900 million, a decade of comparable caliber growth.
Q3 sales decreased due to weather factors, but gross profit per ton remained good.
The company’s performance was slightly lower than our expectations.
Q3 Rainwater weather in Shaanxi increased, and pollution control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in September, so the demand in the northern region was affected.
The company’s Q3 cement clinker sales 2886 at least doubled.
2%, we predict that the average cement clinker of Q3 company will be 323 yuan / ton per kilogram, each time it will increase by more than 30 yuan / ton, the gross profit per ton will be 123 yuan / ton, and the net profit will be over 15 yuan / ton.Above 15 yuan / ton, the profit margin of the cement business remains good under a high economic climate.
The noise reduction effect is significant, and the impairment of assets has dragged down profit growth.
As of the third quarter of 2019, the company’s asset-liability ratio was 53.
8%, Q2 continues to fall by 1.
2 averages, with interest denying 151.
500 million, about 2.6 billion lower than Q2.
At least $ 100 million, but due to Q3 the company withdrew asset impairment 青岛夜网 losses1.
3 ‰ (increased by 1 each year.
100 million), the company’s profit growth was dragged down.
The high business climate in Q4 is expected to maintain, and the medium and long-term outlook is still positive.
We believe that the demand for cement suppressed in Q3 will be partially released in Q4, and the existing inventory in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is at a low level of 40-50%, and the Northeast overload accident will be tightened, and it is expected that the impact of external cement will be reduced, thereby making Beijing-TianjinQ4 in Hebei region maintained a high prosperity.
At the same time, we believe that short-term fluctuations in Q3 will not hinder the company’s medium- and long-term prospects: 1) Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Integrated Construction Company’s core regional demand continues to grow 杭州桑拿 steadily, and 2) China United Cement Reorganization and Tongli Cement will optimize the use of Henan ‘s competitive landscape.
Investment recommendation Based on a more conservative forecast for the Q4 heating season, we lower our 2019 earnings forecast4.
2% to 28.
95 million, but considering the medium and long-term prospects are better, maintain the net profit forecast for 2020-2021 unchanged.
Maintain target price of 19.
RMB 67 and “Buy” rating.
Risks indicate that demand is lower than expected, the implementation of environmental protection and production restrictions is relaxed, and systemic risks.